During the 2007 budget speech as Premier Stelmach's finance minister, Dr. Lyle Oberg, pointed to the past as a reminder of what can happen if the Alberta government doesn't get their spending problem under control.

He said: "We just can't keep raising our spending at these levels-even if strong energy prices and economic growth continue. We must never return to the shortfall scenarios that plagued Alberta in the past."

Dr. Oberg was right.

This year's 17 per cent increase in program spending over last year's budget is unsustainable and puts Alberta taxpayers in a vulnerable position. If oil and gas prices drop, the government is going to have to raise taxes, cut program spending or go back into debt to cover the shortfall - none all of which are unacceptable options.

These three options have all been considered in the past, so a look to our past is probably a good idea. So, what will Dr. Oberg see when he looks to the past

Harry Strom was the last serving premier in Alberta to have never won an election as premier. Strom was selected by members of the Social Credit Party to be leader (and premier) in 1968 following the retirement of Alberta's longest-sitting premier, Ernest C. Manning. Strom sat as premier until the next election in 1971 when he was defeated by Alberta's second longest-sitting premier, Peter Lougheed.

Strom's finance minister, Anders O. Aalborg, was in a similar position to Oberg, where government revenues were strong, but the growth in government spending was even stronger.

Aalborg also issued a strong warning of the need to get government spending under control during his 1969 budget speech: "[T]hese trends must also be heeded as a clear and stern warning that if the rate of acceleration of these expenditures is not sharply curtailed during the next decade their growing magnitude will quickly outstrip all revenues available to the Province from present and potential sources."

Aalborg's budget in 1970, only a year after decrying the need to control spending, increased Alberta government spending by a whopping 17 per cent - the exact same amount by which Oberg's first budget increased spending.

The Strom government's 17 per cent increase in spending was decried by then-opposition leader, Peter Lougheed as contributing to rising inflation.

Similarly, the Stelmach government's rampant increases in capital spending, has similarly been decried by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation as contributing to the 20 to 30 per cent inflationary costs of infrastructure.

Does this mean Ed Stelmach is going to be the next Harry Strom and Lyle Oberg is going to be the next Anders O. Aalborg Not likely, but some of the similarities are a bit eerie.

Strom and Aalborg knew their government's spending was out of control and did nothing to stop it. In fact, they increased spending by an alarming rate a full year after acknowledging the problem.

Stelmach and Oberg know too their spending is out of control. While the 2007 Budget didn't stop it, neither Stelmach nor Oberg were in their respective positions when the 2007 Budget began to take shape, as the budget process begins nearly a year in advance of the release of the final budget. They did however smartly take a first step, by stemming the "Quarterly Christmas" process where during quarterly budget updates millions of new surplus dollars were doled out by the Klein government.

The 2008 Budget will be the true test of Premier Stelmach's leadership. There will be no excuses if the next budget has a double-digit spending increase. And if Stelmach and Oberg suffer the same fate of Strom and Aalborg, they won't be able to say they didn't see it coming.